A quick reflection/introspection of india’s log-jam with socio-economic parameters:
1) Inflation: True inflation based on typical household basket of consumables/expenses over the last 5 yrs is not as rosy as our fin-min/manmohan claims it to be. Would any one agree with only 6% apprecitation in a)rental cost b)transportation cost 3)consumables cost? As per one calc, India's actual inflation is north of 13%. We claim that china's GDP is cooked...what do you say about india's inflation figure..spiced up with obsolete basket-constituents and thier weights.
2) GDP: Our GDP is driven more by domestic demand/consumption rather than exports. Also, investments required to improve/sustain GDP is supported by strong savings growth. This is good news!. But, the sustainability of this GDP is questionable, given the lack of infrastructure needed for this rate of investments.
Theoretical GDP growth you can expect from this level of investments ought to be discounted with india-specific factors to come up with a realistic Trend rate for future. China is more reliant upon exports as bulk of it's GDP drives from this component and therefore coupled to global consumer spending. Govt also should be publishing or atelast keeping track of the contribution-pattern of various GDP components like agri, consumption, govt. spending, exports to bring these in-line with what we need them to be in future through effective policy, fiscal and/or monetary.
3) Credit: Easy access to cost-effective credit is vital to any industry to survive and compete on a global scale. RBI's monetary policy to control inflation would bring in increased rates which would put industry at a disadvantage whose cost-of-debt is more than any other emerging economy.
It ought to be allowed to tap into global credit-mkts for cheaper funds to have a level-playing field with global peers. Domestic bond industry also has to be encouraged/improved through fiscal/monetary policy-measures to get /build self-reliant and deeper credit mkts with in india to prevent getting burned in global credit-squeezes like current crisis.
4) Rupee: Over-valued indian rupee has to be controlled through RBI sterilization measures on a continous basis to protect the domestic export-relying sectors like textiles and miliions of jobs linked with those sectors. If china is strongly pegging thier currency to USD and india lets the mkt decide the cross-rates, it would put the entire sectors like textiles in jeopardy and risk being priced-out of global consumer mkts. Passing on the cost is only a luxury with IT sector, but all other sectors depend upon global competetive pricing.
5) Social: Home-ownership is something that a typical middle-class family used to dream and achieve over thier life-time in almost all the job-centers in india, a decade ago. It's next to IMPOSSIBLE for typical middle-classer entering the job-mkt after education, to even dream about that now. [pls. ignore niche demographics like IT, mgmt jobs and focus on broader job-mkt].
Any country in the world can not claim developed status, until it provide it's citizens with affordable means of home-ownership. This unfortunate metamorphosis of housing mkt is direct result of twisted-economic-policies with total blindness about these social factors and chasing growth at the expense of permanent loss of fundamental necessities of household.
6) Jobs: Shrinking contribution of agriculture to GDP is in contrast to millions of unskilled labor that still were stuck with that sector. Even as we successfully are shifting some percent of them to mfg jobs, it has to be accelerated by bringing/encouraging sectors that can assimilate this vast demographic of currently unprodutive unskilled workforce there by brnging them out of poverty lines and helping their families to build a better future.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
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